Nato Science for Peace – Project SFP 983142

Coordinators:
D. Rust, University of Portsmouth, United Kingdom
A. Tibaldi, University of Milan Bicocca, Italy
A. Korjenkov, Inst. Communication Information Technologies, Kyrgyzstan

More than 10 millions people from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Russia are dependant for energy and water supply from the 1200 MW Toktogul hydroelectric scheme, located in Kyrgyzstan. It is vital for the economic and agricultural stability of the countries it serves. The Toktogul dam reservoir (19.5 cubic kilometers, the key element in the scheme) has been recently discovered to be located along the active hundreds-km-long Talas-Fergana transcurrent fault. Moreover, on the Naryn-Syrdariya valley bottom downhill from the scheme there are several dump deposits of radioactive and toxic wastes. Most of the giant Toktogul reservoir is surrounded by steep slopes made of densely fractured metamorphic rocks covered by poorly-consolidated Quaternary deposits, whose stability has never been quantitatively assessed. We are particularly concerned about the possibility of huge landsliding into the reservoir triggered by an earthquake, heavy rains, or their combination, with the potential for water overflooding. With the present project we assessed in an interdisciplinary way the whole geo-environmental impacts and potential threats to the hydroelectric scheme, comprising the evaluation of seismic, landslide and flooding hazard in the area.
Understanding the nature, location and recurrence patterns of threats to the environmental security of this region, as well as ways of mitigating against these threats, is crucial to planning and ensuring continued economic development and political stability.